Forecast accuracy
The most advanced methods, proven against yours.
A more accurate forecast can still cost you more.
We show you which forecasting approach is worth adopting for your range, measured in your own money, on your own data, before anything changes.
Every planning team measures forecast error. Almost none can say what a lower error was worth. Error does not pay for stock sitting in a warehouse, and it does not recover a sale lost to an empty shelf.
So the question that matters never gets asked. Not which approach forecasts best, but which approach leaves you better off once the inventory it holds, the service it delivers and the cost of running it are all counted.
Accuracy is not the point on its own. It is the first link in a chain that ends in cash, and most of the cost sits in the links nobody measures.
The most advanced methods, proven against yours.
Stock you can release without losing a sale.
The saving, in money your board understands.
We do not hold your range up against textbook assumptions, published benchmarks or how other companies are said to operate. We work from what is actually happening within your supply chain, because that is the only standard against which a change to your business can honestly be judged.
Results arrive in the terms your board already uses: availability to customers, working capital tied up in stock, and the cost of running the approach. You are given the commercial consequence of each option rather than a technical score that somebody then has to translate.
Every recommendation arrives with how much weight it will carry, so you know which changes are worth making first and how confident to be in each one. Nothing is presented as certain when the evidence will not support it.
When I realised the platform's ability to accurately diagnose our inventory issues beyond forecast accuracy, it gave me full confidence.
Supply chain and inventory leaders carrying a service commitment and a working capital target at the same time, and the finance partners who hold them to both.
Proof, not opinion, for every decision behind your forecast.
Before anyone forecasts anything, we look back at your own history and show where the cost has actually been coming from: which lines, which sites, which decisions. Not a theory about why, but the evidence, so the right problem gets fixed first.
A live forecast that stays current as new sales, orders and stock movements arrive, so you are never working from last month's picture. You see what is likely to happen across your range, and how far to trust it, in time to act.
We do not stop at a number. You see the choice in front of you, what each option would mean in availability and working capital, and which one the evidence favours, so the decision is made on purpose rather than by default.
Know which forecasting approach each part of your range should actually use.
Most organisations run one approach across everything, or several chosen years ago for reasons nobody now remembers. Both leave money on the table, in different places.
We establish which approach performs for each part of your business and what adopting it would be worth, expressed in availability and working capital rather than in error.
The only comparison that answers the question you are actually asking.
A benchmark nobody uses proves nothing. Every result we give you answers one question: would this be better than what we do now? That is a higher bar than performing well against a published standard, and it is the only bar that justifies changing anything.
See which parts of your range are quietly behaving differently.
Few organisations have a clear picture of how differently the parts of their range actually behave, and that difference is usually where the money is. We give you that picture, drawn from your own business rather than from the categories your systems happen to use.
What each option would actually have cost you, and delivered.
A forecast only matters through the decisions it causes. We show you the availability and the stock position each option produces, so the choice is made on outcomes rather than on a score, and the trade-off between service and working capital is visible rather than assumed.
Know how much weight each recommendation carries.
A ranking without a sense of its reliability is an opinion. Everything we give you is qualified by the strength of the evidence behind it, so you can act decisively where the case is strong and proceed carefully where it is not. That is what makes the output safe to take into a boardroom.
Any result can be reproduced and defended months later.
Every piece of work records what went into it and how it was configured. When a decision is questioned a year on, the answer is a record rather than a recollection.
For parts of the range where the usual approaches underperform.
Some demand resists forecasting, and knowing that is worth as much as a better forecast. Our deeper diagnostics establish what is realistically achievable for a given part of your range, which stops good money being spent chasing an improvement that was never available.
Every sector forecasts, and every sector pays for error in its own currency. We judge forecasting approaches by what they cost in yours, against what you do today.
Error is paid in markdownThousands of lines, hundreds of stores, and a forecast that has to be right before the promotion starts.
Retail demand moves with the calendar, the weather, the promotion and the store next door, and the forecast is judged on the shelf: a gap costs the sale, a surplus costs the markdown. Most estates run one approach across the whole range and let the planners correct it by hand, which is where the cost hides.
We test which forecasting approach performs for each part of your range and each kind of store, judged against what you do today, and show what it would have meant in availability, stock and markdown across the estate you already run.
Error is paid in scheduleLong lead times, finite capacity, and customers whose schedules move faster than yours can.
When material is ordered months ahead and capacity cannot be added in a week, the forecast is not advice. It is a commitment. Customer schedule changes arrive inside the lead time, and the choice is between carrying stock and capacity against them or carrying the risk of missing them.
We show what each forecasting approach would have committed, what it would have cost to hold, and how often it would have been caught out by schedule volatility, so the trade-off between inventory, capacity and service is seen before it is made.
Error is paid in branch stockWhen value holds and volume falls, purchasing plans are running against the wrong number.
This sector publishes its own figures, monthly, and they have been telling a consistent story: sales value holding up while volumes fall. A purchasing plan built on value will over-order. One built on last year's volume will under-serve. Most branches are planning against one of those numbers without knowing which.
We test both, on your own branch and category history, and show which forecasting approach would have left you with the right stock at the right branch, measured in the terms your finance director already uses rather than in forecast error.
Error is paid in shelf lifeWhere forecast error becomes waste within days, and the customer measures your accuracy for you.
Short shelf life turns every over-forecast into write-off and every under-forecast into a missed order. Supermarket supply agreements often add a second cost: an accuracy obligation with a penalty attached. Both are paid in cash, and neither appears in the error report.
Growth makes it worse, not better. A range that doubles in two years carries production rules, run lengths and safety stocks that were set for a smaller business. Revenue can rise while margin goes the other way, and the forecast is usually blamed for a problem that sits in the rules built on it.
Error is paid in two warehousesWide ranges, export markets, and stock that now has to be in two places at once.
A distributor carrying thousands of SKUs across several markets rarely has one forecasting problem. The fast lines behave differently from the long tail, the home market differently from export, and since Brexit many businesses hold a second stock position on the Continent to serve customers they once served from one warehouse.
Each of those positions is a working capital decision as much as a forecasting one. We show what each approach would have held, where, and what that would have cost against what you do today, so the choice between availability and cash is made deliberately rather than by default.
Error is paid in idle assetsLong lead times, unpredictable demand for parts, and a build programme that cannot wait for a late component.
Wind, solar, storage and grid businesses hold two very different kinds of stock: the long-lead components that gate a project, and the spares and consumables that keep installed assets producing. Each behaves differently, and the cost of getting either wrong runs in opposite directions: a project held up on one side, an asset standing idle on the other.
We test which forecasting approach suits each, judged against what you do today, and show what it would have meant in project timing, asset availability and the capital tied up waiting.
Error is paid in write-downShort product lives, components with shortages of their own, and a channel that reacts to every stock signal.
Hardware, devices and the infrastructure behind digital services share a problem: the product changes faster than the forecast. New generations cannibalise the old, components go on allocation, and a channel will over-order the moment it suspects scarcity. The data is rich; the question is which of it to trust.
We test which approach performs at each stage of a product's life, from launch to end of life, judged against what you do today, and show the cost in availability, obsolete stock and cash.
Error is paid in expiryRegulated supply, expiry-dated stock, and a shortfall that is measured in patients rather than sales.
Pharmaceutical, medical device and diagnostics supply chains carry constraints few other sectors do: batch sizes set by the process, shelf life that turns surplus into waste, and a cost of running out that goes well beyond lost revenue. Forecast error here is paid twice, in write-offs and in service.
We test which approach suits each product and market, judged against what you do today, and show what it would have meant in service, expiry write-off and working capital, with the trail of evidence a regulated business expects.
The choice follows your security policy rather than ours.
Runs entirely offline and suits organisations that permit no outbound connectivity at all, including fully isolated environments.
Suits organisations with conventional enterprise security and adds central identity, automatic update checking and audit forwarding into your own monitoring.
The product is built to be deployed inside an ISO 27001 certified environment without compensating controls. It requires no credentials, runs without elevated privileges, writes only where you direct it, and is delivered as a signed artefact you can scan with your own tooling before it goes anywhere near your estate.
Evaluation needs extracts of data you already hold, provided as files. There is no database connection to open, no interface to build, and no change to your planning systems required to find out what the answer would be. That is deliberate: the cost of finding out should never be the reason not to.
Provided as files. No database connection to open.
Nothing to connect, nothing to configure in your planning systems.
Find out what it would be before anything changes.
Because accuracy and cost can disagree, and when they do, accuracy is the one that misleads.
Carrying less saves money, and it also moves you closer to the point where a customer finds an empty shelf.
It has to be measured in money.
This is not a theoretical concern. It is the common case rather than the exception, and it is routinely missed because the report that would reveal it is not the report anybody runs.
We are not a planning suite. We do not schedule production, manage suppliers or replace your sales and operations process.
We are preparing an application to Innovate UK's BridgeAI Deployment Catalyst and are looking for one UK deployer partner for a funded, three-to-five-month project from spring 2027. Inside your own operation, the project answers a single question: which forecasting approach is worth adopting for each part of your range. We measure the difference against what you do today, in customer availability and in the cash tied up in stock.
Tell us who you are and we will send you the full programme details straight away, then come back to you personally, usually within five working days, to arrange a short conversation. There is no form to fill in beyond this, and nothing here commits you to anything.
An email with the full programme details is on its way to you now. If it has not arrived in a few minutes, check your junk folder for a message from noreply@prolepsisanalytics.com. We will be in touch personally, usually within five working days.
Thank you. That has reached us as well.
A UK-registered medium or large business, or a UK public sector body, in advanced manufacturing, clean energy, health and life sciences or another sector the programme names, with a supply chain that feels it when the forecast is wrong.
Around two years of sales, orders and stock movements, in whatever system holds them. We take a slice, not the estate, under a non-disclosure agreement, and demonstrate on representative data from your own systems.
A supply chain, operations, procurement or finance leader who wants to know, can commit the organisation to joining the application, and can carry the result into the business if it is worth carrying.
Not a perfect forecasting function. A frank account of where today's forecast keeps customers supplied and where it does not, so the evidence lands where it matters most to you.
How Prolepsis Analytics collects, uses and protects personal information when you use this website, contact us, request a demonstration or apply to the partner programme.
Prolepsis Analytics Ltd (“Prolepsis”, “we”, “us”) is a company registered in England and Wales under company number 17478089, with its registered office at 167–169 Great Portland Street, London W1W 5PF, United Kingdom. We are the controller of the personal information described in this notice, which means we decide why and how it is used.
Questions about this notice or about your information should go to privacy@prolepsisanalytics.com or to the postal address above, marked “Data protection”.
This notice covers personal information we collect through this website (www.prolepsisanalytics.com) and through the forms on it: the contact form, the “request a demonstration” form, the data readiness questionnaire and the partner programme application. It also covers information we collect when you correspond with us by email or telephone as a result of using the site.
It does not cover information we process on behalf of a client under a services agreement, such as sales, order and stock history shared with us for analysis. That processing is governed by the agreement and the data processing terms in it, under which we act as a processor for the client.
Most of this is business information about your organisation. Where it identifies you (your name, email address, role, telephone number, opinions you express), it is personal information and this notice applies to it. You are not obliged to give us any of it, but we cannot respond to a request or assess an application without the fields marked as required.
We do not collect special category information (such as health, ethnicity or political opinions), payment card details or information about criminal convictions through this website. Please do not include such information in free-text fields.
UK data protection law requires us to have a lawful basis for each use of personal information. The table sets out each use and the basis we rely on.
| Purpose | Information | Lawful basis |
|---|---|---|
| Answering an enquiry, arranging a demonstration or replying to a data readiness questionnaire | Contact, demonstration and questionnaire form details, correspondence | Legitimate interests: responding to a request you have made to us. Where the request leads to a contract, taking steps at your request before entering into it. |
| Assessing a partner programme application against our criteria and the eligibility rules of the funding programme, and contacting you about it | Partner application details | Consent, which you give by ticking the processing box on the form, and our legitimate interest in selecting a suitable partner. You can withdraw consent at any time (section 11). |
| Sending occasional emails about forecasting and supply chain solutions | Name, organisation, job title, email address | Consent, given by ticking the separate marketing box. Never sent without it. |
| Keeping a record of who we have been in contact with and what was discussed | Correspondence, form submissions | Legitimate interests: running our business and keeping accurate records. |
| Understanding how the site is used and whether our advertising works | Cookie and tag data (section 6) | Consent, given through the cookie banner. |
| Keeping the site secure, preventing spam and abuse | Server logs, form metadata, IP address | Legitimate interests: protecting the site and the people who use it. |
| Complying with legal obligations, dealing with disputes | Any of the above, as needed | Legal obligation; legitimate interests in establishing, exercising or defending legal claims. |
Where we rely on legitimate interests, we have considered the effect on you and concluded that it is limited, that you would reasonably expect the use described, and that your interests do not override ours. You can object to any use based on legitimate interests (section 11).
We send marketing emails only to people who have ticked the marketing box on one of our forms or otherwise asked to hear from us. Ticking the box adds your address to our mailing list; leaving it empty does nothing. We send a few emails a year, written by people, about forecasting and supply chain subjects we think are relevant to your role.
Every email contains an unsubscribe link. You can also unsubscribe by emailing privacy@prolepsisanalytics.com. Unsubscribing removes you from the list; it does not affect any other correspondence or an open partner application. If we use a third-party email service to send these emails, it is named in section 7.
We do not sell, rent or lend our mailing list to anyone.
A cookie is a small text file stored in your browser. Similar technologies, such as local storage and tracking pixels, do similar jobs. When you first visit the site a banner asks whether you accept the optional ones. You can change your choice at any time through the “Cookies” link in the footer, and through your browser settings, which also let you delete cookies already set.
These are needed for the site to work and to remember your cookie choice. They do not track you across other websites.
| Name | Set by | Purpose | Lasts |
|---|---|---|---|
pa_consent | This site | Records whether you accepted or declined optional cookies, so the banner does not reappear and so the tags below know whether they may run. Also stored in your browser's local storage. | 180 days |
If you accept, we load tags from Google (Google Analytics and Google Ads) and LinkedIn (the LinkedIn Insight Tag), and, if we use it, Meta (Facebook). These tools collect information about your visit, such as the pages you view, your device and browser, your approximate location from your IP address and the page you came from. They tell us which pages are visited, roughly where visitors come from, and whether a visit followed one of our advertisements, and they allow us to measure and refine advertising on those platforms. These companies may also use the data for their own purposes as described in their privacy policies. We have configured Google's tag to anonymise IP addresses and to respect Google Consent Mode, so that no advertising cookies are set unless you have agreed.
| Name | Set by | Purpose | Lasts |
|---|---|---|---|
_ga, _ga_* | Google Analytics | Distinguishes visitors and sessions so that page views can be counted. | Up to 2 years |
_gcl_au, _gcl_aw | Google Ads | Records that a visit followed a Google advertisement, so that a later form submission can be attributed to it. | 90 days |
IDE, test_cookie | Google (doubleclick.net) | Advertising measurement and, if enabled, personalisation. | Up to 13 months |
li_sugr, bcookie, lidc, UserMatchHistory, AnalyticsSyncHistory, li_gc | LinkedIn Insight Tag | Lets us see, in aggregate, the job titles and industries of visitors, measure LinkedIn advertising, and show relevant advertising to visitors on LinkedIn. | From 1 day to 1 year |
_fbp, _fbc | Meta Pixel | Distinguishes visitors and records that a visit followed a Facebook or Instagram advertisement, so that a later form submission can be attributed to it and so that relevant advertising can be shown on Meta platforms. | 90 days |
More on how these companies use data: Google · LinkedIn · Meta. Google offers a browser add-on that blocks Google Analytics everywhere, and LinkedIn offers guest controls.
The hero film and the images on this site are served from our own domain and set no cookies.
We do not sell personal information. We share it only with the following, and only as far as needed:
We do not share partner applications or enquiries with other applicants, with clients, or with anyone else.
We are based in the United Kingdom and keep your information here where we can. Some of the providers named above (Namecheap, Google, LinkedIn, Meta, and Mailchimp if used) are based in or operate from the United States and may process information there. Where that happens we rely on one of the safeguards recognised under UK law: the UK–US Data Bridge (the UK extension to the EU–US Data Privacy Framework) where the provider is certified under it, or the UK International Data Transfer Agreement or the EU standard contractual clauses with the UK addendum. You can ask us for details of the safeguard that applies to a particular provider.
| Information | Kept for |
|---|---|
| Contact and demonstration enquiries, and data readiness questionnaires | 24 months from our last contact with you, then deleted, unless the enquiry led to a contract, in which case it is kept with the contract records. |
| Partner programme applications | Until the related funding competition and any project arising from it are concluded, and in any case no longer than 3 years from submission; then deleted. If your organisation becomes our partner, the application is kept with the project records. |
| Mailing list | Until you unsubscribe, or until we have not been able to deliver to the address for 12 months. A record that you unsubscribed is kept so that we do not email you again. |
| Server logs | Rotated by our hosting provider, typically within 30 days. |
| Cookie and analytics data | As set out in section 6. Google Analytics data is retained for 14 months in our account. |
| Records needed for legal, tax or regulatory purposes | As long as the law requires, usually 6 years after the end of the relationship. |
The site is served only over HTTPS. Form submissions are sent encrypted to our server and stored outside the web-accessible part of the hosting account. Access to the hosting account, the email system and the mailing list is limited to the people who need it and protected by strong passwords and, where the provider offers it, multi-factor authentication. Information shared with us under a non-disclosure agreement is handled under the terms of that agreement.
No method of transmission or storage is perfectly secure. If we become aware of a breach that is likely to put your rights at risk we will tell you and the ICO as the law requires.
Under the UK GDPR and the Data Protection Act 2018 you have the right to:
To exercise any of these, email privacy@prolepsisanalytics.com. We will respond within one month, and we may ask you to confirm your identity first. There is no charge unless a request is clearly unfounded or excessive.
You also have the right to complain to the Information Commissioner's Office at ico.org.uk/make-a-complaint or on 0303 123 1113. We would welcome the chance to address your concern first.
We do not make decisions about you by automated means. Partner programme applications are read and assessed by a person. The ratings you give on the application form are summarised to help that person, but no application is accepted or declined by software. The analytics and advertising tags described in section 6 build aggregate profiles of visitors for measurement; they are not used to make decisions about individuals.
This website is for businesses and the people who work in them. It is not directed at anyone under 18 and we do not knowingly collect information from children. If you believe a child has given us information, please tell us and we will delete it.
The site links to other websites, including LinkedIn, Innovate UK and the providers named above. Their privacy practices are their own and this notice does not apply to them.
We may update this notice when our practices or the law change. The version number and effective date at the top show when it was last changed. If a change materially affects how we use information you have already given us, we will tell you by email where we can.
Prolepsis Analytics Ltd, 167–169 Great Portland Street, London W1W 5PF, United Kingdom. Email: privacy@prolepsisanalytics.com.
The terms on which you may use this website and the forms on it. They do not govern any services we provide, which are covered by a separate written agreement.
This website at www.prolepsisanalytics.com (the “site”) is operated by Prolepsis Analytics Ltd (“Prolepsis”, “we”, “us”), a company registered in England and Wales under company number 17478089, registered office 167–169 Great Portland Street, London W1W 5PF. By using the site you agree to these terms. If you do not agree, please do not use it.
These terms apply to the site only. Any consulting, analysis, software or other services we provide are governed by a separate written agreement, and in the event of conflict that agreement prevails.
You may use the site for lawful purposes connected with your business or your interest in our services. You are responsible for making the arrangements you need to access the site and for ensuring that anyone who uses it through your connection is aware of these terms.
The site is intended for use by businesses, public bodies and the people who work in them. It is not directed at consumers or at anyone under 18.
The content of the site is provided for general information about Prolepsis and what we do. It is not advice, and it is not an offer capable of acceptance. Descriptions of results, including illustrative figures and the testimonial on the home page, describe particular circumstances and are not a promise that similar results will be achieved for any other business.
We try to keep the site accurate and current, but we make no representation or warranty, express or implied, that its content is accurate, complete or up to date, and you should not rely on it when making a decision. If you want to rely on something, ask us for it in writing.
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When you use the contact form, request a demonstration, send a data readiness questionnaire or apply to the partner programme, you agree that:
The partner programme page describes a project we intend to propose to a public funding body and invites organisations to express interest in taking part. In relation to it:
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You may view the site, print or download extracts for your own reference within your organisation, and share links to it. You may not otherwise copy, reproduce, modify, distribute, republish, scrape, frame or create derivative works from any part of the site, or use the Prolepsis name or marks, without our written permission. The status of Prolepsis as the author of content must always be acknowledged, and extracts must not be altered or used in a misleading context.
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You must not: use the site in any way that breaks the law or these terms; attempt to gain unauthorised access to the site, the server on which it is hosted, or any connected system; introduce viruses, malware or other harmful material; use automated tools to scrape, harvest or submit forms; overload or interfere with the site; or use the forms to send unsolicited commercial messages to us or to impersonate anyone. We may block access, remove submissions and report conduct to the relevant authorities where we consider it necessary.
The site links to websites and services operated by others, including LinkedIn, Meta, Innovate UK, Google and the sources of some of our images. We do not control them and are not responsible for their content, availability or terms. Links are provided for your convenience only. Where you consent to analytics or advertising cookies, the operation of those services is governed by the providers' own terms and privacy policies.
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Nothing in these terms excludes or limits our liability for death or personal injury caused by our negligence, for fraud or fraudulent misrepresentation, or for anything else that cannot be excluded or limited under the law of England and Wales.
Subject to that, and to the fullest extent the law allows: we exclude all implied conditions, warranties and representations relating to the site and its content; we are not liable for any loss or damage, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), breach of statutory duty or otherwise, arising from your use of or reliance on the site or its content, even if foreseeable; and we are not liable for any loss of profit, business, revenue, goodwill, data or anticipated savings, or for any indirect or consequential loss. If, despite the above, we are found liable in connection with the site, our total liability to you is limited to £100.
We do not exclude or limit any liability under a separate written agreement for services; that liability is governed by the agreement.
Our privacy and cookies notice explains how we use personal information collected through the site. By using the site you acknowledge that notice. It forms part of these terms.
If any part of these terms is found to be invalid or unenforceable, the rest continues in effect. A failure by us to enforce a right is not a waiver of it. These terms are between you and us; no one else may enforce them under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act 1999. You may not transfer your rights under these terms; we may transfer ours to a successor of the business. These terms, together with the privacy notice, are the entire agreement between you and us about your use of the site.
These terms, and any dispute or claim arising out of or in connection with them or the site (including non-contractual disputes or claims), are governed by the law of England and Wales. The courts of England and Wales have exclusive jurisdiction, except that if you are a consumer resident elsewhere in the United Kingdom you may also bring proceedings in your home nation's courts.
Prolepsis Analytics Ltd, 167–169 Great Portland Street, London W1W 5PF, United Kingdom. Email: privacy@prolepsisanalytics.com.
A question, a conversation, or a demonstration on a slice of your own data. We reply within two working days.
A short questionnaire, mostly single clicks, that shows which comparison your records support and what would unlock more. Your answers are only sent if you press Send at the end.
Start the questionnaireAnswer what you know. "Not sure" is a valid answer, and it changes how we start. Most questions take a single click. Some sections only appear when an earlier answer makes them relevant.
Your answers stay in your browser until you press Send at the end. Then they are emailed to us, with your name and work email so we can reply. See the privacy notice.
The scenario is worked out from your answers as you go.
Thank you. Your answers have reached us, and we will reply within two working days.
Tell us where to reach you. We will reply within two working days with a time, and with what to bring so the demonstration can run on a slice of your own data.